“We are in the top of the 8th inning . . . . . ”  So began the 2008 Santa Barbara County Real Estate and Economic Update presented by Dr. Mark Schniepp, Director of the California Economic Forecast, on September 18th.  Speaking before a crowd of mostly real estate advisors, Dr. Schniepp told the group that “it’s going to be a difficult rest of the year.”  Below are some of the highlights from his very informative presentation.

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Yesterday afternoon I had the pleasure of attending an educational briefing for legal, financial and real property advisors on the new Santa Barbara Cottage Hospital and The Campaign for Cottage Health System.  Lady Leslie Ridley-Tree shared an inspiring story about how she and her late husband became involved in the project to rebuild Cottage Hospital.  Her call to action was grounded in the message that the hospital will serve everyone in the community and therefore presents a unique opportunity for everyone to get involved in helping The Campaign reach its financial goals.

Later that evening I was invited to attend the Annual Reception for the Scholarship Foundation of Santa Barbara.  In May, the Scholarship Foundation of Santa Barbara awarded 2,000 scholarships totaling $6.4 million to help Santa Barbara County students with their college costs.  A recent scholarship recipient, Julio, shared a moving story about his dream of attending college despite the struggles he faced as an immigrant from Mexico.  Julio is now an American citizen and is attending UCSB (double major) thanks, in part, to assistance from the Scholarship Foundation of Santa Barbara.

We are blessed to live in such a forward-thinking community that takes pride in helping others live a better life, whether it’s through the attainment of a college education or access to state-of-the-art health care.   Please consider these worthy organizations if you are in a position to give of your time or financial resources.

According to recent data reported by Freddie Mac, the answer may be YES. While home values across the U.S. registered a 0.4 percent decline during the second quarter of 2008, experts see the significant moderation in the rate of decline as an encouraging sign when compared to the 10 percent drop experienced during the prior two quarters. In fact, 13 states experienced price gains over the past year, and 33 states showed price increases during the second quarter, according to Freddie Mac data.

In support of this data, the Case-Shiller home price data for 2008 also showed prices leveling off in recent months. In fact, from May to June of 2008, prices didn’t fall in a majority of the markets surveyed by Case-Shiller. While California home prices continued to decline in the second quarter due to the high foreclosure rate in the State as a whole, there are signs of a slowing here as well.

While it may be too soon to predict that we’ve hit bottom, there are reasons to find encouragement in the latest national price data. This is important, because if it begins to seem that further price declines aren’t going to be a sure thing, home buyers will rush in to scoop up homes at today’s bargain prices (relative to the highs of 3 years ago when prices began to fall) and low interest rates. This will solidify the bottom and eventually lead to an upward price revision in real estate markets like Santa Barbara, where demand typically outpaces supply.