“KNOWLEDGE IS POWER.” It’s a phrase used by many, and last week was an important one to be in the know, as Bonds and home loan rates were affected by many big newsmakers and market shakers. Bonds and home loan rates found some improvement in the early part of the week, leading into the Fed’s big announcement on Wednesday of another .25% cut to the Fed Funds Rate.

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“NO GREAT DISCOVERY WAS EVER MADE WITHOUT A BOLD GUESS.” Isaac Newton But even the great mind of Isaac Newton might not have guessed that Bonds and home loan rates would continue on such a volatile course. But let’s get bold, and discover what caused the latest rock and roll action in the financial markets, and take a look at what the coming week might have in store.

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“I’M GOING OFF THE RAILS ON A CRAZY TRAIN…” OZZY OSBOURNE And speaking of going off the rails crazy…Bonds and home loan rates just experienced one of the most volatile, crazy weeks ever seen, with fixed home loan rates rising by about .375% by the time the smoke cleared.

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“CUTS LIKE A KNIFE, BUT IT FEELS SO RIGHT” Bryan Adams And financial pros will tell you it’s wise to never try and catch a falling knife. Seems like decent advice in general - but in the financial world, it means that when the price of a Stock or Bond is in the midst of a severe decline, be very cautious about stepping in to buy…even if it feels so right because the price starts to look cheap. That’s because when prices declines sharply, it often gets even worse, making it hard to call the bottom. That’s why many investors, who attempt to buy on the way down, say the feeling cuts like a knife. And over the past week - Bonds have been dropping much like a knife, and home loan rates have risen by about .25% across the board.

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“COMMEND A FOOL FOR HIS WIT, OR A ROGUE FOR HIS HONESTY, AND HE WILL RECEIVE YOU INTO HIS FAVOUR.” Henry Fielding So honestly - was “rogue trader” Jerome Kerviel really solely responsible for costing French Bank Societe Generale $7.1 Billion Dollars…and for helping to trigger last week’s massive sell-off in global Stock markets? Or is the junior trader being played a fool, becoming the scapegoat to cover up financial mismanagement by the bank itself?

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“If you don’t like the weather, wait a minute”…That’s a saying heard often in places where the weather can turn on a dime, making it very difficult to forecast. And while the weather patterns can change direction quickly, the recent movement of stocks and bonds rivals the rides at an amusement park.

“Turbulent” and “volatile” best describe the action in the markets. Stocks and bonds have had wild swings of late as the possibility of a recession loom. The Federal Reserve is concerned about a recession, but doesn’t want to cut rates too deeply because it may stoke the flames of inflation. In a speech last Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled the Fed will step in with interest rate cuts as necessary in an effort to prevent a full-blown recession from taking place. It sure looks like the Fed will break off a 50 basis point (1/2%) interest rate cut in its battle to fight a potential recession when the Fed next meets to determine monetary policy on January 30th.

But remember that because Fed rate cuts may add to inflation pressures, home loan rates may actually increase after a cut by the Fed. We have seen this type of chilly response to Fed cuts many times before. Just back in September, the Fed cut by 50 basis points, but home loan rates worsened by 0.25% in just 3 days!

THE MARKET ACTION SURE IS HEATING UP, BUT IT MAY BE TIME TO PUT A FREEZE ON YOUR CREDIT PROFILE TO STOP IDENTITY THEFT. FIND OUT IN THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW!

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“YOUTH IS WHEN YOU’RE ALLOWED TO STAY UP LATE ON NEW YEAR’S EVE. MIDDLE AGE IS WHEN YOU’RE FORCED TO.” Bill Vaughn And battle weary Traders may be looking to hang it up early for the night, after enduring days and weeks on end of extreme market volatility. And last week was no exception, as the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister and current opposition leader Benazir Bhutto brought on even more volatile moves in the markets.

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“SURVEY SAYS…?” Richard Dawson’s classic line on Family Feud is exactly the question that was on many minds at 8:29am ET last Friday morning, awaiting the official results of the November Jobs Report. After Automatic Data Processing (ADP) had released their hot numbers earlier in the week, indicating well over 200,000 new jobs created - traders and analysts began to wonder if Friday’s official number might not come in far higher than the expectations of 70,000.

So when the results came in, it did show 94,000 new jobs created during November - but prior month’s revisions took back 48,000 jobs previously counted in September and October. So…given this overall tame to semi-weak Jobs number - which generally would cause Bonds and home loan rates to improve - what happened that caused Bond pricing to worsen, and home loan rates to increase by .25%? (more…)

“I CAN SEE CLEARLY NOW, THE RAIN IS GONE…” Johnny Nash hit number one on the charts with this classic tune in 1972…and 35 years later, Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke is singing the same tune, mentioning in comments last week that the Fed would be more transparent so we all can see their policies clearly.

The new, improved, and more transparent Fed is a far cry from the days of “The Cryptic One”…Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, who was famous for his hidden messages. After a Greenspan speech, many traders were left scratching their heads and wondering what exactly was said. In sharp contrast, Bernanke has been very clear and easy to understand.

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