A great deal of media attention has been given to the sub prime loan market and rising foreclosures as a result of lenders making loans to marginal borrowers. Interestingly, only 9% of existing loans would be characterized as sub prime and many of those borrowers are not headed to foreclosure.

The areas currently hardest hit as a result of the sub prime loan fall out and resulting foreclosures are those that have experienced significant new construction and in many cases over building. These tend to be areas where prices are more affordable, land is available/inexpensive, and the political climate is pro-growth.

To illustrate why, picture a developer who built a tract of 300 homes in a community and sold them a few years back. You can imagine a billboard in front of the development that read “Why rent when you can own? With no money down and a teaser rate on your loan you can have payments similar to what you are paying now in rent!” These billboards certainly worked because first time buyers flooded to these developments to realize the dream of home ownership while taking part in the double digit appreciation we have been enjoying for many years. (more…)